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title = {Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean},
author = {
Jahn, Alexandra
and Holland, Marika M.
and Kay, Jennifer E.
},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00515-9},
journal = {Other},
volume = {5},
pages = {164-176},
}
,@article{Herman
title = {Drivers of low-frequency Sahel precipitation variability: comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble means with observations},
author = {
Herman, Rebecca Jean
and Biasutti, Michela
and Kushnir, Yochanan
},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-06755-1},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
volume = {61},
pages = {4449-4470},
}
,@article{Wyburn-Powell
title = {Modeled Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Cover is within Observational Uncertainty},
author = {
Wyburn-Powell, Christopher
and Jahn, Alexandra
and R. England, Mark
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/20/JCLI-D-21-0958.1.xml},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {35},
pages = {3227-3242},
}
,@article{Holtanová
title = {Projected changes in mean annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over the Czech Republic: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6},
author = {
Holtanová, Eva
and Belda, Michal
and Halenka, Tomáš
},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1018661/full},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
volume = {10},
}
,@article{Huard
title = {Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations},
author = {
Huard, David
and Fyke, Jeremy
and Capellán‐Pérez, Iñigo
and Matthews, H. Damon
and Partanen, Antti‐Ilari
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022EF002715},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {10},
}
,@article{Koshiro
title = {Estimated cloud-top entrainment index explains positive low-cloud-cover feedback},
author = {
Koshiro, Tsuyoshi
and Kawai, Hideaki
and Noda, Akira T.
},
url = {https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2200635119},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {119},
}
,@article{Farquharson
title = {Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall},
author = {
Farquharson, Jamie I.
and Amelung, Falk
},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220275},
journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
volume = {9},
}
,@article{Qin
title = {On the Correspondence Between Atmosphere‐Only and Coupled Simulations for Radiative Feedbacks and Forcing From CO 2},
author = {
Qin, Yi
and Zelinka, Mark D.
and Klein, Stephen A.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JD035460},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
volume = {127},
}
,@article{Lyu
title = {Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record},
author = {
Lyu, Kewei
and Zhang, Xuebin
and Church, John A.
},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01151-1},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {11},
pages = {834-839},
}
,@article{Palmer
title = {How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections?},
author = {
Palmer, T E
and Booth, B B B
and McSweeney, C F
},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1ed9},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {16},
pages = {094042},
}
,@article{Jayasankar
title = {Does increasing the spatial resolution in dynamical downscaling impact climate change projection of Indian summer monsoon, population and GDP?},
author = {
Jayasankar, C. B.
and Rajendran, K.
and Sajani, Surendran
},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-021-03633-w},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
volume = {145},
pages = {441-453},
}
,@article{Kajtar
title = {CMIP5 Intermodel Relationships in the Baseline Southern Ocean Climate System and With Future Projections},
author = {
Kajtar, Jules B.
and Santoso, Agus
and Collins, Matthew
and Taschetto, Andréa S.
and England, Matthew H.
and Frankcombe, Leela M.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001873},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {9},
}
,@article{Lee
title = {Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations},
author = {
Lee, Jiwoo
and Sperber, Kenneth R.
and Gleckler, Peter J.
and Taylor, Karl E.
and Bonfils, Céline J. W.
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-20-0832.1/JCLI-D-20-0832.1.xml},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {1-70},
}
,@article{Koch
title = {Earth System Models Are Not Capturing Present‐Day Tropical Forest Carbon Dynamics},
author = {
Koch, Alexander
and Hubau, Wannes
and Lewis, Simon L.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001874},
journal = {Other},
volume = {9},
}
,@article{Goyal
title = {Historical and Projected Changes in the Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies},
author = {
Goyal, Rishav
and Sen Gupta, Alex
and Jucker, Martin
and England, Matthew H.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090849},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {48},
}
,@article{Nicholls
title = {Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0},
author = {
Nicholls, Zebedee
and Lewis, Jared
and Makin, Melissa
and Nattala, Usha
and Zhang, Geordie Z.
and Mutch, Simon J.
and Tescari, Edoardo
and Meinshausen, Malte
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gdj3.113},
journal = {Geoscience Data Journal},
}
,@article{Hobbs
title = {Anthropogenic Temperature and Salinity Changes in the Southern Ocean},
author = {
Hobbs, William R.
and Roach, Christopher
and Roy, Tilla
and Sallée, Jean-Baptiste
and Bindoff, Nathaniel
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/1/jcliD200454.xml},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {34},
pages = {215-228},
}
,@article{Ribes
title = {Making climate projections conditional on historical observations},
author = {
Ribes, Aurélien
and Qasmi, Saïd
and Gillett, Nathan P.
},
url = {https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/4/eabc0671},
journal = {Science Advances},
volume = {7},
pages = {eabc0671},
}
,@article{Kim
title = {Performance Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models on Heatwaves in Korea and Associated Teleconnection Patterns},
author = {
Kim, Maeng‐Ki
and Yu, Dae‐Geun
and Oh, Ji‐Seon
and Byun, Young‐Hwa
and Boo, Kyung‐On
and Chung, Il‐Ung
and Park, Jeong‐Soo
and Park, Doo‐Sun R.
and Min, Seung‐Ki
and Sung, Hyun Min
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032583},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
volume = {125},
}
,@article{Qin
title = {Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870},
author = {
Qin, Minhua
and Dai, Aiguo
and Hua, Wenjian
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089504},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Szuwalski
title = {Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea},
author = {
Szuwalski, Cody
and Cheng, Wei
and Foy, Robert
and Hermann, Albert J
and Hollowed, Anne
and Holsman, Kirstin
and Lee, Jiwoo
and Stockhausen, William
and Zheng, Jie
},
journal = {Other},
}
,@article{Zhang
title = {The ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Models: A New Tool for Evaluating Climate Models with Field Data},
author = {
Zhang, C.
and Xie, S.
and Tao, C.
and Tang, S.
and Emmenegger, T.
and Neelin, J. D.
and Schiro, K. A.
and Lin, W.
and Shaheen, Z.
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/101/10/E1619/348634/The-ARM-DataOriented-Metrics-and-Diagnostics},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
volume = {101},
pages = {E1619-E1627},
}
,@article{Burke
title = {Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change},
author = {
Burke, Eleanor
and Krinner G.
and Yu Zhang
},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
}
,@article{Planton
title = {Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package},
author = {
Planton, Yann Y.
and Guilyardi, Eric
and Wittenberg, Andrew T.
and Lee, Jiwoo
and Gleckler, Peter J.
and Bayr, Tobias
and McGregor, Shayne
and McPhaden, Michael J.
and Power, Scott
and Roehrig, Romain
and Vialard, Jérôme
and Voldoire, Aurore
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/354641/Evaluating-climate-models-with-the-CLIVAR-2020},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
pages = {1-57},
}
,@article{Hayashi
title = {Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern},
author = {
Hayashi, Michiya
and Jin, Fei-Fei
and Stuecker, Malte F.
},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17983-y},
journal = {Other},
volume = {11},
pages = {4230},
}
,@article{Irving
title = {A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble},
author = {
Irving, Damien
and Hobbs, Will
and Church, John
and Zika, Jan
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0281.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {1-43},
}
,@article{Séférian
title = {Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6},
author = {
Séférian, Roland
and Berthet, Sarah
and Yool, Andrew
and Palmiéri, Julien
and Bopp, Laurent
and Tagliabue, Alessandro
and Kwiatkowski, Lester
and Aumont, Olivier
and Christian, James
and Dunne, John
and Gehlen, Marion
and Ilyina, Tatiana
and John, Jasmin G.
and Li, Hongmei
and Long, Matthew C.
and Luo, Jessica Y.
and Nakano, Hideyuki
and Romanou, Anastasia
and Schwinger, Jörg
and Stock, Charles
and Santana-Falcón, Yeray
and Takano, Yohei
and Tjiputra, Jerry
and Tsujino, Hiroyuki
and Watanabe, Michio
and Wu, Tongwen
and Wu, Fanghua
and Yamamoto, Akitomo
},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0},
journal = {Other},
}
,@article{Mudryk
title = {Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble},
author = {
Mudryk, Lawrence
and Santolaria-Otín, María
and Krinner, Gerhard
and Ménégoz, Martin
and Derksen, Chris
and Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire
and Brady, Mike
and Essery, Richard
},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2495/2020/},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
volume = {14},
pages = {2495-2514},
}
,@article{DeRepentigny
title = {Arctic Sea Ice in Two Configurations of the CESM2 During the 20th and 21st Centuries},
author = {
DeRepentigny, Patricia
and Jahn, Alexandra
and Holland, Marika M.
and Smith, Abigail
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JC016133},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
volume = {125},
pages = {e2020JC016133},
}
,@article{Qin
title = {Aerosol-forced multidecadal variations across all ocean basins in models and observations since 1920},
author = {
Qin, Minhua
and Dai, Aiguo
and Hua, Wenjian
},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abb0425},
journal = {Science Advances},
volume = {6},
}
,@article{Jones
title = {Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets},
author = {
Jones, Chris D
and Friedlingstein, Pierre
},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {15},
pages = {074019},
}
,@article{SIMIP Community
title = {Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6},
author = {
SIMIP Community
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086749},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Watson‐Parris
title = {Constraining Uncertainty in Aerosol Direct Forcing},
author = {
Watson‐Parris, D.
and Bellouin, N.
and Deaconu, L. T.
and Schutgens, N. A. J.
and Yoshioka, M.
and Regayre, L. A.
and Pringle, K. J.
and Johnson, J. S.
and Smith, C. J.
and Carslaw, K. S.
and Stier, P.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087141},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Roach
title = {Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6},
author = {
Roach, Lettie A.
and Dörr, Jakob
and Holmes, Caroline R.
and Massonnet, François
and Blockley, Edward W.
and Notz, Dirk
and Rackow, Thomas
and Raphael, Marilyn N.
and O'Farrell, Siobhan P.
and Bailey, David A.
and Bitz, Cecilia M.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086729},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Lyu
title = {Regional dynamic sea level simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: mean biases, future projections, and their linkages},
author = {
Lyu, Kewei
and Zhang, Xuebin
and Church, John A.
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1029.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
}
,@article{Grise
title = {Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models},
author = {
Grise, Kevin M.
and Davis, Sean M.
},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/5249/2020/},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
volume = {20},
pages = {5249-5268},
}
,@article{Oudar
title = {Drivers of the Northern Extratropical Eddy‐Driven Jet Change in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models},
author = {
Oudar, Thomas
and Cattiaux, Julien
and Douville, Hervé
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086695},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Tian
title = {The Double‐ITCZ Bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Models Based on Annual Mean Precipitation},
author = {
Tian, Baijun
and Dong, Xinyu
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL087232},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Tsutsui
title = {Diagnosing Transient Response to CO 2 Forcing in Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Model Experiments Using a Climate Model Emulator},
author = {
Tsutsui, Junichi
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085844},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
}
,@article{Lu
title = {Uncertainty and hotspots in 21st century projections of agricultural drought from CMIP5 models},
author = {
Lu, Junyu
and Carbone, Gregory J.
and Grego, John M.
},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41196-z},
journal = {Other},
volume = {9},
}
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title = {Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming},
author = {
Po‐Chedley, Stephen
and Zelinka, Mark D.
and Jeevanjee, Nadir
and Thorsen, Tyler J.
and Santer, Benjamin D.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084786},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {46},
pages = {13399-13409},
}
,@article{Irving
title = {Anthropogenic Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and the Uptake, Transport, and Storage of Excess Heat in the Climate System},
author = {
Irving, Damien. B.
and Wijffels, Susan.
and Church, John. A.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082015},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {46},
pages = {4894-4903},
}
,@article{Hua
title = {An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon},
author = {
Hua, Wenjian
and Dai, Aiguo
and Zhou, Liming
and Qin, Minhua
and Chen, Haishan
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL081406},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {46},
pages = {923-932},
}
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title = {The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery},
author = {
Giannini, Alessandra
and Kaplan, Alexey
},
journal = {Climatic Change},
volume = {152},
pages = {449},
}
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title = {Climate constraint reflects forced signal},
author = {
Po-Chedley, Stephen
and Proistosescu, Cristian
and Armour, Kyle C.
and Santer, Benjamin D.
},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0640-y},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {563},
pages = {E6-E9},
}
,@article{Ferguson
title = {The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis},
author = {
Ferguson, C. R.
and Pan, M.
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},
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volume = {54},
pages = {7791-7819},
}
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title = {How reliable are CMIP5 models in simulating dust optical depth?},
author = {
Pu, Bing
and Ginoux, Paul
},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/12491/2018/},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
volume = {18},
pages = {12491-12510},
}
,@article{Jayasankar
title = {Monsoon Climate Change Projection for the Orographic West Coast of India Using High-Resolution Nested Dynamical Downscaling Model},
author = {
Jayasankar, C. B.
and Rajendran, Kavirajan
and Surendran, Sajani
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/doi?DOI=10.1029/2018JD028677},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
}
,@article{Hua
title = {Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to the Recent Pacific Decadal Variations},
author = {
Hua, Wenjian
and Dai, Aiguo
and Qin, Minhua
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079033},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {45},
pages = {7084-7092},
}
,@article{Jiwoo Lee
title = {Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability},
author = {
Jiwoo Lee
and Kenneth R. Sperber
and Peter J. Gleckler
and Céline J. W. Bonfils
and Karl E. Taylor
},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-018-4355-4},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
volume = {52},
pages = {4057-4089},
}
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title = {Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks},
author = {
Po-Chedley, Stephen
and Armour, Kyle C.
and Bitz, Cecilia M.
and Zelinka, Mark D.
and Santer, Benjamin D.
and Fu, Qiang
},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {31},
pages = {3187-3206},
}
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title = {Evaluation of Relationships between Subtropical Marine Low Stratiform Cloudiness and Estimated Inversion Strength in CMIP5 Models Using the Satellite Simulator Package COSP},
author = {
Koshiro, Tsuyoshi
and Shiotani, Masato
and Kawai, Hideaki
and Yukimoto, Seiji
},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/14/0/14_2018-005/_article},
journal = {SOLA},
volume = {14},
pages = {25-32},
}
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title = {Environmental controls on modern scleractinian coral and reef-scale calcification},
author = {
Courtney TA
and Lebrato M
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and Johnson R
and Molinero JC
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journal = {Other},
}
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title = {Atmospheric, radiative, and hydrologic effects of future land use and land cover changes: A global and multimodel climate picture},
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Quesada Benjamin
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},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025448/full},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
volume = {Volume 122},
pages = {5113-5131},
}
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title = {Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling},
author = {
Brady, Riley X.
and Alexander, Michael A.
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},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072945/abstract},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
}
,@article{Esteban Abellán
title = {Analysis of the southward wind shift of ENSO in CMIP5 models},
author = {
Esteban Abellán
and Shayne McGregor
and Matthew H. England
},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {30},
pages = {2415-2435},
}
,@article{Zazulie
title = {Regional climate of the subtropical central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models—part I: past performance (1980–2005)},
author = {
Zazulie, N
and Rusticucci, M
and Raga, G. B.
},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
}
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title = {Snow cover response to temperature in observational and climate model ensembles},
author = {
Mudryk, L. R.
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and Thackeray, C.
},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL071789},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {44},
pages = {919-926},
}
,@article{DeAngelis
title = {Importance of vegetation processes for model spread in the fast precipitation response to CO2 forcing},
author = {
DeAngelis, Anthony M.
and Qu, Xin
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},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071392/abstract},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {43},
pages = {12,550-12,559},
}
,@article{Belda
title = {Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections},
author = {
Belda, M
and Holtanová, E
and Kalvová, J
and Halenka, T
},
url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v71/n1/p17-31/},
journal = {Climate Research},
volume = {71},
pages = {17-31},
}
,@article{Jahn
title = {How predictable is the timing of a summer ice‐free Arctic?},
author = {
Jahn, Alexandra
and Kay, Jennifer E.
and Holland, Marika M.
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,